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Intel needs a rebuild to catch up with TSMC. The company’s plans to be announced on Thursday
eighteen.01.2021 [21:49],
Konstantin Khodakovsky

Transforming a leading chip designer and manufacturer in crisis will require not only solving production problems, but also getting the consent of key shareholders to make tough decisions about the company’s future. How challenging the job of Intel’s new CEO will be? The company’s main semiconductor competitor, TSMC, provides some important clues.

Patrick T. Fallon / Bloomberg News)

Pat Gelsinger will not lead Intel until mid-February, but on Thursday, during the next financial report of the company for the fourth quarter, it is likely that some development directions will be indicated. Intel promised to seize the opportunity to inform investors about the state of affairs with the solution of production problems. The company is also to announce whether it will continue to adhere to its long-standing practice of self-manufacturing chips, or whether some of its future products will be outsourced to contract manufacturers like TSMC.

Mr. Gelsinger has been an engineer at Intel for many years, so his appointment clearly says: the company is not ready to give up on its own production. But fighting the rising TSMC will be a daunting task. TSMC announced on Thursday that revenues grew 31% in 2021 to a record $ 45.5 billion – the best growth in more than a decade. In addition, the demand for the company’s production services is so high that TSMC plans to invest a record amount in capital expenditures next year to expand its capacity. TSMC will spend between $ 25 billion and $ 28 billion in 2021 – double the capital expenditure that Intel has spent on average annually over the past five years.

Pat Gelsinger (Salt & Light)

Intel is still a much larger company compared to TSMC, with revenue projected at around $ 75.3 billion in 2021, up 5% from the previous year. However, the growth in PC sales and demand from the data center will not solve the company’s production problems. Wall Street currently expects Intel’s revenue to drop 7% this year – the worst in more than a decade. By comparison, according to FactSet, TSMC predicts a 20% increase in revenue to about $ 54.4 billion in 2021.

Intel says it has made significant strides in adopting its 7nm manufacturing standards. But, for example, the latest Rocket Lake-S desktop processors will not even be 10nm, but 14nm. At the same time, TSMC is already mass-producing 5-nm chips and is developing 3-nm standards with plans to launch mass production by the second half of 2022. It is not entirely correct to compare the technological processes of different companies simply by name, but one thing is clear: even if Mr. Gelsinger manages to bring Intel’s production line back to normal, the company lags far behind. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon says Intel will continue to lag behind TSMC for at least three more years, if not lagged forever.

Former Intel CEO Robert Swan

Although the fourth quarter results and Intel news will be announced by the current CEO Robert Swan, who will remain formally in charge until February 15, it will be Pat Gelsinger who will have to convince Intel employees, customers and investors of the bright future of the company. Perhaps he will have to explain to shareholders the need for radical reforms like a joint venture with TSMC.

Some analysts even recommend Intel to completely abandon its factories (at one time, this is exactly what AMD did). Such a development of events is unlikely: it is almost unrealistic to find a buyer of American Intel enterprises that would suit the US authorities. But even a less radical strategy for printing some of the chips on third-party capacities will have its costs, because Intel will, in fact, have to sponsor a competitor by paying for its services.

In general, the new head of the company no longer has easy options. Pat Gelsinger’s appointment was warmly received on Wall Street: since then at least six brokers have upgraded the stock. COO with technical skills is expected to be better suited to solving Intel problems. The irony is that convincing investors of the correctness of the new strategy is more of a commercial task.

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