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In the central part of the USA, rolling blackouts began – the “green” energy was not ready for winter
In the central part of the United States, “wild” weather, as Americans say. Abnormal heat waves, hurricanes, droughts and frosts are the norm for states in this region. Usually utilities are ready for a lot, but not this time when the sharp drop in temperature coincided with high humidity. Frost and water have knocked out half of wind turbines in Texas, robbing the grid of its last safety margins, and blackouts began.
Since last weekend, the Texas Electricity Reliability Board (ERCOT) and Southwest Power Pool, which serves 14 states in the central US, have requested and implemented rolling blackouts to prevent a global power grid collapse. In particular, in Texas, 60% of households are heated with electricity, and the rest – with natural gas. This increased the consumption of electricity against the backdrop of the shutdown of part of the capacity on wind energy. Conditions this winter turned out to be worse than what ERCOT was prepared for.
Since electricity consumption peaks in Texas and the central states in the summer, when air conditioners are turned on massively, coal or natural gas power plants often stop for routine maintenance during the winter months. This winter is no exception. By the time of the unexpectedly sharp cold snap, many of the “fossil” power plants were shut down and could not start work simply on demand. It takes time to start up units, especially in the case of coal-fired power plants.
About the weather in Seattle, Washington. Image Source: David Ryder / Getty Images
At the same time, experts point out that coal, gas and nuclear power plants have a weak point – this is the need for a large volume of water to cool the units. Climate change towards warming will lead to a decrease in fresh water supplies and to the inability to produce energy using fossil fuels in the same volume. And if now they are viewed as a momentary salvation, then in the future their work will lead to irreversible and harmful consequences.
It should be added that modern methods of weather forecasting are getting better every year, which is helped by both better computer simulations and an abundance of observation instruments, including satellites. Better forecasting will ideally allow the weather to be predicted so accurately that distribution services can manage supply and capacity by the minute.
Image source: Michael Leland / IPR
Flexibility will give more headroom to the system. For example, services will be able to send messages to consumers asking them to start heating the house before the onset of severe frosts in order to stretch the peak of consumption over time. It will also allow alerts to be sent to companies to shut down businesses ahead of peaks. In fact, modern technology allows you to manage notification and distribution of energy consumption in real time.
It would seem that Texas has many sources of energy and is sufficiently protected from problems with power generation. The state is producing gas and growing electricity production using solar and wind energy. Over the past 15 years, the state has diversified its fuel mix: coal consumption has decreased, the shares of wind and solar energy have increased, and the use of nuclear power and natural gas has remained unchanged. Collapse can only happen with a combination of rare weather factors.
In 2021, during a cold snap in Texas, the consumption of natural gas by the population increased. The growth was so significant that the pressure in the pipe dropped and natural gas power plants began to reduce productivity. The winter of 2021, even without a share of renewable energy, was accompanied by rolling blackouts in the state.
Coal is also not all right. Most of the coal burned in Texas power plants comes from Wyoming via an extensive rail network that could be disrupted if a bridge or section of track fails or is under repair. Utilities store coal in piles near their power plants for 30 days or more, but in the event of severe weather problems, even that won’t help, as happened in 20021 when Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston.
A little about the weather in Oklahoma. Image source: Sue Ogrocki / AP
All this emphasizes the importance of diversification, but something that you don’t expect or don’t plan always happens, as happened this winter. The state has moved away from coal and has tripled wind power since 2021. As we now know, it didn’t save. Moreover, sources report a shortage of natural gas, which is why about 30% of generating capacities in Texas are turned off. The shutdown of the wind turbines was the straw that broke the back of the camel – it deprived even the ghostly reserves of generation.
Other states have their own risks. Overall, weather-related power outages are on the rise in the U.S. as climate change triggers more severe storms and temperature swings. Such processes force in the northern states to increase the reliability of generation systems by using methods common in the southern states, and in the southern states, on the contrary, to adapt their networks and systems to the weather characteristic of the northern states.
Recently, by the way, rolling blackouts were in California. This state has a serious problem with an outdated distribution system. In summer, the wires sag, and in winter they are torn by trees and branches flying from hurricanes. Additionally, in California, aging transmission and distribution networks are causing wildfires, a growing risk as the impacts of climate change are causing frequent droughts in the region. But networks change little where. The operator prefers to simply turn off the power supply during periods of fire hazard. So they live.